An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.
âThe shadow of war is knocking on Europeâs door again. Thatâs the reality. Weâve got to be prepared to prevent it,â he stated, in comments that go beyond previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.
âAs a whole society â what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they canât do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?â
It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.
And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material â as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.
This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.
One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.
But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public â without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.
Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 âin recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistanâ.
It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.
And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.
With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.
He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.
His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.
Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the âAction Manâ that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.
While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.
âThereâs no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,â says one MP. âHe is completely untested.â
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