From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”