Australia's Failed Attempt to Stage Cop31 Appears Like a Mess – But It May In Fact Be the Optimal Outcome Achievable

Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.