Aston Villa Defy Gravity Again as Winning Streak Rolls On at Chelsea

This surely should not continue. It makes no sense that it persists. And yet, it does.

A Record-Chasing Triumph Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, achieving it seemed improbable, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, took the lead, and might have added several more. But, Chelsea are vulnerability with a lead, especially at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable habit of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post following his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the winner with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might feel a bit of luck was due, and there's no question the first goal had a significant element of good fortune. Currently, though, fortune is favoring Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Implausible Streak

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a shutout in only one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern should not, but pundits have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa continue winning. The key question is whether their results will finally match their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the points haul.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everybody's been saying that for a while and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Characteristic: Resilience

Coming from behind is not just a feature of this season. Over the past three seasons, no team has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; 18 of those have been secured this season, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored nine goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at changing games through his use of the bench.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea had the better of the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa became the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Watkins replaced Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs in behind caused problems. Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, bolstering the midfield and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's none before the changes; following them, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were commanding and could easily have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca struggled to respond as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is more proficient at devising a tactical plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a happy habit of individuals producing moments of match-winning quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him working the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing flawlessly, but sufficient players within it delivering to secure the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its halfway stage, they have to be considered as part of the title race, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have assembled their own run of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.